As we fast approach the holidays it’s amazing the difference…or rather…the indifference is in the sport and business world with brand NHL. At this time last year the sport was buzzing with hot franchises in key markets like New York, Philly, Boston, and Los Angeles. The league and its partners were gearing up for a landmark festival of hockey around the Winter Classic, and NBC was enjoying helping a rebirth of the sport. The NBA was not yet back from its own lockout, the hockey had the fall to itself in many markets. They may not have grabbed fans from hoops, but they had a nice opportunity to sample casual fans and grow some equity as a strong winter gave rise to a renewed and growing interest in the sport. The LA Kings and the New Jersey Devils, two clubs that had not just embraced but showed great innovation in the social and digital space, met in a Stanley Cup Final that brought the Cup to Southern California and a new legion of celebrities who found the game fun and exciting.
And that was that.
The lockout, and the stalemate between the league and the NHLPA has brought not just silence to rinks but really indifference to the casual fan. They have moved on to other things to spend their casual dollar on, and the league and the PA are hopeful that the tribal nature of the game will bring their core fans back when the lockout ends. After all, even with games now canceled until at least mid-January and the Winter Classic and All-Star games, the two biggest draws for casual eyeballs, now evaporated, sponsors have not yet bolted for other sports for the most part, and those with a jones for the game have watched a smattering of KHL contests and college hockey on regional networks and NBC Sports Network to see there is a game still out there.
Now if the lockout is settled and the season is played, there is probably cause for hope. This lockout is somewhat different from the previous season-cancelling one, since it was much clearer that the game itself was at stake if the balance of dollars did not shift. The result was not just a better financial model at the time, it brought about fan-friendly innovation and a renewed interest in a sport which had slowly lost its way even from many of its core fans outside of Canada. The new NHL was faster, more fun and more embracing of change. It was worth the season lost to invoke that change. This time? The battle is among large sums of money to be split by owners and players. It is the bane of the casual fans existence…wealthy parties struggling to split up large pools of cash. It’s less about the fans, much more about the dollars.
This time there are also differences in the media landscape [e and in fan engagement that are going to give the NHL trouble when returning to the ice, even if it is this year. While the NBA or the other two large team sports in North Americas, the NFL and MLB, really wont syphon off casual fans, soccer is much stronger than it was the last time the lockout occurred. There is very much a commonality between casual fans of soccer, and even lacrosse (another growing sport) and those of hockey. MLS has probably pulled some dollars from NHL spending and now with the major European clubs as a fixture on broadcast TV, it will be harder for hockey to fight its way into their customary spot in the big four team sports.
On the sponsor side there have yet to be any mass defections from a game that really has built more brand loyalty the last few years than it ever had before. There is a wait and see, and even a cost savings for brands without the NHL to this point, but should the full season go, those brands are going to need to find ways to engage the young male demo that hockey has. They can’t wait to do so until next fall. So where do those dollars go? Soccer, maybe MMA, maybe lacrosse or maybe even back to baseball for a look-see. That is a place where the NHL runs a great risk. If those brands find success in other sports, maybe they won’t return to hockey, as it is the result they need, not the sport they crave. The other big risk is in the economy itself. The financial world as we know it today is different from when the previous lockout occurred. Even the strongest of franchises of sport have had issues moving all tickets and growing their brands, so can NHL franchises with a year away find a path back to stability and relevance? It is new and unchartered waters even if some say that the brand came back stronger the last time. There is a bigger difference in the passage of time.
Now in Canada the story is probably different. Hockey is the national game, and when the clubs return to the ice the feeling is the dollars and the fans will follow, whenever it is. The same probably holds true with a smaller core group in the States. They love the ruggedness and the speed of the game, and the franchises have done a strong job in recent years to build loyalty. However loyalty is a two way street even for the strongest of brands, and with a full year off, even some of those core fans may have been able to find events to spend some of their discretionary dollar on when the sport they loved was pulled away. Come back, probably…but will it be less often or at full price?
Even at this stage there are many losers no matter what happens when the game returns. Scores of workers who needed events to balance their budgets have lost dollars that will never return. Businesses around arenas will never recoup the cash that flowed on game nights, and arenas left in flux have lost valuable dates where they could have booked other events. While TV has filled the void thus far, the make good on local advertising salespeople also hurts.
Who wins? Well if the game is more financially viable the theory is everyone does in the long run. A healthier game for those at the top financially means brand NHL rebounds. However a rebellious climate today may not make that work as easily as it has in the past. There have not been mass protests or talk of another league starting up to sate the needs of the hockey fan this time as there have been in the past or with other sports. It is much more quiet indifference, and that quiet indifference, coupled with frustration, can be a very bad message for those who will look to revive the dormant NHL.
In the end, a January settlement and a short and exciting season will be a salve for wounds reopened for brand NHL. If the season slips away, the silence of arenas, of departing brands and of casual fans will be deafening for a brand that was on the rise again and came to a screeching labor halt.
Here’s to finding a big Christmas gift for the sport, a labor solution as we enter 2013. The huge risk may not be worth the overall reward.
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