As the XFL reaches week two and beyond, the tempered enthusiasm now moves to what’s next and sustainability for the longer term. In truth its hard to say for sure what the viability of a spring football league, outside of the CFL, will actually be; many have tried, and none, other than a bit of a myth about how long the USFL will have lasted, have succeeded.
However, I think there is something that may be getting lost in comparison for Vince McMahon’s new business, which has the well documented cash to make it through and grow for the first two seasons with the amount put in. Is the comparison of numbers and size to football, or would it be to other startup leagues for the past quarter century? If you look at the XFL through the prism, then shouldn’t one look to the WNBA and MLS as models for metrics, vs the NFL?
One of the things that keeps coming up is ratings; the XFL needs big ratings to keep itself going. Unfortunately, in the risk averse world of traditional “advertising buys,” ratings points still matter and yes people have to watch. However, what is the number for success? The WNBA and MLS do not have massive numbers on TV, yet brands find their way into engagement. This is NOT the NFL; it is not set up to be the NFL…so why compare to NFL numbers? Yes, there are metrics for success that networks need to hit in primetime on weekends to justify spends; but afternoons? Is it good programming that feeds into other platforms” Who is the demo that is watching…and more importantly today, what is the overall engagement not just on a couch and a big screen but on every device possible? That is where measurement is going, and that what should be looked at more closely than just a household number. NBC and ESPN both have intricate ways to measure what NBC calls TAMI…Total 
Audience Measurement Indication. It was only this past week that the total viewer numbers for the Super Bowl were delivered that included “out of home,” so isn’t that where a startup league should be judged?
Let’s look elsewhere. Attendance. One of the biggest areas of failure for any startup live event business is in cost for event. Bad stadium or arena deals are killers. In recent years leagues like the National Lacrosse League have struck partnerships with arena owners that turned bad team deals into positive ones, and as a result the league is thriving as you can control and manage costs and share in an upside. Know how many leagues or teams have gone into legendary Madison Square Garden as a tenant and have lasted? Zero. None. Lacrosse, hockey, tennis, arena football, indoor soccer, even the WNBA when the Liberty were no longer owned by MSG couldn’t make ends meet. Why? The cost of rental was too high, and you could not construct a plan for long term success. Does the XFL have good stadium deals? Haven’t seen but they know with smart people like Jeffrey 
Pollack and Oliver Luck at the top, that there are ticket numbers that offset operations costs for a period of years that have to be met. What that math is they probably know and only they know but hitting that number to manage stadium costs is very much key in how success should be judged. The optics of people in seats is very important, but then again so is the cost per fan…something which is even more important than having 20,000 people in a 30,000-seat stadium with a bad deal.
Building stars and storylines. A few weeks ago at our NYVC Sports event to start 2020 the WWE’s Triple H and Stephanie McMahon talked about the business model for success that wrestling has as a property. Heroes and villains. Give people a reason to follow the storytelling and believe every week. Give them a reason to care. That’s what fandom is. They are one of us. That is a challenge the XFL has started to build and will need to do as a metric for success. How can they measure sentiment around the team and the league based on the people and players on the field. What will keep people coming back? As a startup in the social and digital age fans want access; they want to know more about their players and coaches they want to be engaged on every device possible. We saw a great amount of that potential engagement during the broadcasts last week; access to the inside goings on of games that let fans behind the curtain. Much worked, some will be adjusted, this is a startup after all. But the other piece of that; the in depth storytelling that will go on as the games unfold deep inside the players, will help measure success for sure. Everyone has a story, finding every medium to explore that story and then amplifying that message amongst every stakeholder is key. Making sure everyone associated is sharing content on social makes local stories national, gives a voice where there was not one, and will help make casual fans ardent advocates. One of the best assets of the league are the coaches; they are the identifiable from day one; they are the constants, they are the teachers and the builders. The XFL has done a good job in getting coaches out there front and center…not just head coaches but legendary assistants like Norm Chow…and that usage has been valuable as the stars on the field and the best stories now come into play.
Finding engaged brands and helping them storytell. This will be one of the biggest challenges. Finding not just big brands looking for exposure; but disruptive brands with dollars who crave an audience and need engagement to measure ROI beyond just a logo on the field. This will not be an easy spend at first; its easier to say “lets buy the NFL, the NBA or MLB;” that is a known and pretty safe spend. There are metrics that explain the why. With the XFL there are lots of numbers about the football fan, but no proof yet that the XFL brand will pull in that consumer loyalty. That takes time and it takes some risk. Those are things which the agency world don’t take to, but the good news is as a startup you can take best practices from other and really help craft a message for success for a brand looking for that type of cost effective growth on platforms like digital. It is still early, but those new brands who want to be in at the beginning, are where success will lie with the assets the XFL have and can create. There is no burden of legacy here, there is an opportunity, and that opportunity comes with storytelling and listening to the brand to deliver.
Creating the new world of engagement for all. Perhaps this is the best and biggest area where the XFL can grow, and where the smart minds at the top have gone. Find the new areas of engagement; gambling and gaming, athlete health and wellness, technology and innovation, global brands looking to find the North American sports landscape, and be the effective litmus test for success. The rules the league uses have the answers to lots of “what if’s” that a sport like football has not been able to address with college football or the NFL. Some will work, some will have to be adjusted, but you can set metrics for innovation as a startup that can be measured and quantified and appeal to all. You don’t have to be outlandish, you have to be smart, and most importantly you have to explain yourself as to the why very well. Talking to people, not at people is key. It builds consensus and shows how you are the innovator for the future not the repeat model of the past. That seems to be what is being preached. Will it work? It has a chance.
Patience. This is the toughest one in a world where success is measured by the second, and one tweet can start a panic. It is where the XFL can look to the WNBA and MLS as role models. You cant be measured week to week internally. You must have leaders who are looking longer term, measuring the weekly wins and going from there. There was a great saying from former MLB manager Art Howe that applies here; “In Oakland (with the A’s) we played a 162 game season. In New York (with the Mets) we play 162 seasons.” Living and dying on each little misstep kills productivity. MLS more than anyone has controlled their narrative and measurement for success. They in some ways became “The Emperors New Clothes” for sports success. Few challenge their faults, many trumpet their success and want to believe in the narrative. That comes from the top. Positivity in storytelling for startups is key, and that will help rule the XFL. Every little story needs to be emphasized, every failure shrunk as best possible. It’s what politicians and smart businesses to best; stay on course and keep going back to your key messages; turn the phrase and have everyone on message. It takes a long time to measure success and ROI; take that time in between to accentuate the positive, minimize the negative.
The XFL has also done a good job of listening; to fans, to the broadcast community, to others in the industry as to what is needed and what could work. Using listening as a piece of success is often missing in the entrepreneurial space where the founder takes and forces a vision that could be siloed. Asking introspective questions and finding a path can be engaging, and will also save lots of time and money as things play out.
Now will many still look to a week by week progression for success? Of course. That’s the nature of sport. How do you stay relevant and grow when the shiny new toy is not so new any more. It’s a challenge. It was discouraging to see the Tampa Tribune say to SBJ’s Ben Fischer that he would cover the Vipers if they had Tim Tebow in week two. That’s old school thinking. However that’s not what the XFL needs today like other leagues have in the past. That media platform is important but not to the extent of the past. You can now tell stories directly to the consumer and build fandom and bypass the traditional if you have the time and the expertise. And the patience and understanding. It’s both the challenge and the opportunity.
Will the XFL succeed? No one knows yet. Do they have the chance? Yes. More importantly, think about what the measurement for success needs to be today and into the future. Its probably not what people are saying right now. The game of engagement has changed, maybe they are coming along at the time to redefine that for all.
